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The newest version of the perfect storm is finally here

05 January 2009

As the global economy struggles, aviation will also suffer. But, as always, the industry will recover, says Adam Pilarski, senior vicepresident of Avitas, in his monthly column.

The fact that the aviation industry is and always will be cyclical was never in doubt in my mind. In good times I face an uphill battle to convince people of that fact; right now nobody will argue with me. Downturns in aviation in the past few cycles have been an amalgamation of differ­ent events culminating in a result more dramatic than experienced by other industries.

The downturn of the early 1990s combined world recession, high oil prices and the perceived terrorism threat to flying as a result of the first Gulf war. Also, there was the self-inflicted over-ordering of aircraft, which exac­erbated the supply and demand imbalance.

The downturn of the early 2000s combined recession, terrorism directed at aviation accompanied by the counter terrorism measures inflicted on the hapless public by vari­ous government bodies with an additional helping of a large-scale epidemic scare in the...


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"A lot of people hoped these proposals would die under their own weight"

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