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Pilarski: Organizational forgetting–reality or lazy analysis?
07 June 2011
Learning curves are crucial in aircraft production, writes Adam Pilarski, senior vice-president, Avitas, in his monthly column.
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Adam Pilarski
learning curves
Lockheed 1011 programme
manufacturing programmes
production rate
Technical skills, while really important, have to be used in combination with knowledge of the subject matter and common sense to generate reasonable results. This has been demonstrated in an article published in the American Economic Review by a Stanford economist that analyzes manufacturing learning curves of the Lockheed 1011 programme.
The author detected initial steep drops in the learning curve. After some time though the curve stopped declining and started exhibiting signs of an upward trend. The author then, using sophisticated econometric models, declared that this is evidence of organizational forgetting.
Learning curves are a very important element of our industry and are used in all aircraft manufacturing programmes.
The basic assumption is that organizations and individuals learn and become more efficient at producing subsequent units. An 85% curve implies that doubling of production reduces average hours per unit by 15%. So the first unit can be produced in...
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